5 seats · estimated turnout 78.9 % (2023: 74.0 %)
Valladolid
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.1 %29.4–47.0
PSOE26.2 %19.3–33.9
Vox21.6 %15.3–28.8
Frente Amplio5.4 %2.3–10.5
Podemos3.3 %1.1–7.4
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.0 %0.7–4.4
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 60 | 40 | 2 (2–3) | ||||
| PSOE | 50 | 50 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 90 | 10 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 50 %; challenger PP (40 %).
Senate
The Senate in Valladolid
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.5 29.9–47.4 | 11 | 14 | 75 | 2.6 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.7 23.4–38.9 | 6 | 70 | 13 | 11 | 1.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 21.8 15.5–29.1 | 93 | 7 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 3.7 1.1–8.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.3 1.1–7.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.0 0.7–4.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 169 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 213 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 111 %
- PP 3 · Vox 15 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Jesús Julio Carnero García | PP | 130,827 |
| José Ángel Alonso Pérez | PP | 129,357 |
| María Arenales Serrano Argüello | PP | 127,564 |
| José Javier Izquierdo Roncero | PSOE | 105,958 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 40.8 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 32.8 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 15.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 8.9 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 45 % | PP · 41 % |
| 2 | PP · 43 % | PSOE · 37 % |
| 3 | Vox · 11 % | Vox · 21 % |
| 4 | Frente Amplio · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,700 (interquartile range 5,295–21,419), 3.52 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 11,604 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 5,457 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 7,323 |
| 2016 | Cs | PP | 3,956 |
| 2019A | VOX | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,330 |
| 2019N | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,744 |
| 2023 | VOX | PP | 3,669 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.