3 seats · estimated turnout 74.2 % (2023: 64.2 %)
Zamora
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP41.7 %32.5–50.9
PSOE26.6 %19.5–34.6
Vox18.6 %12.9–25.2
Frente Amplio3.1 %1.3–6.1
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.5 %0.9–5.7
Podemos2.4 %0.8–5.4
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 28 | 72 | 2 (1–2) | ||
| PSOE | 3 | 96 | 1 (0–1) | ||
| Vox | 70 | 30 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PP: 72 %; challenger Vox (30 %).
Senate
The Senate in Zamora
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 42.2 33.2–51.3 | 3 | 6 | 90 | 2.9 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 28.9 21.7–36.9 | 3 | 87 | 6 | 3 | 1.1 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 18.8 13.2–25.4 | 97 | 3 | 0.0 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 5.1 1.7–12.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.6 0.9–5.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.4 0.8–5.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 187 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 26 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 13 %
- PP 3 · Vox 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| José María Barrios Tejero | PP | 45,476 |
| Natalia Ucero Pérez | PP | 44,350 |
| Fernando Martínez-Maíllo Toribio | PP | 44,167 |
| José Fernández Blanco | PSOE | 33,553 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 44.7 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 32.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 13.2 | – | – |
| Frente Amplio | 5.7 | – | – |
| Zsi | 1.8 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 61 % | Vox · 60 % |
| 2 | Vox · 25 % | PP · 30 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 14 % | PSOE · 10 % |
| 4 | Se Acabó La Fiesta · <1 % | Frente Amplio · <1 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 3,783 (interquartile range 1,831–6,521), 3.67 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 5,742 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 16,585 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,477 |
| 2016 | PSOE | PP | 6,395 |
| 2019A | Cs | PSOE | 944 |
| 2019N | VOX | PP | 193 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 6,298 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.