7 seats · estimated turnout 76.0 % (2023: 70.7 %)
Zaragoza
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP33.6 %25.0–42.6
PSOE24.8 %17.8–32.7
Vox21.7 %15.1–29.2
CHA-Frente Amplio7.5 %3.3–14.4
Podemos4.2 %1.5–9.4
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.8 %0.6–4.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 13 | 76 | 11 | 3 (2–4) | |||||
| PSOE | 6 | 82 | 12 | 2 (1–3) | |||||
| Vox | 24 | 73 | 2 | 2 (1–2) | |||||
| CHA-Frente Amplio | 84 | 16 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for Vox: 76 %; challenger CHA-Frente Amplio (16 %).
Senate
The Senate in Zaragoza
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.1 25.6–42.9 | 2 | 27 | 20 | 51 | 2.2 (1–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 31.5 23.7–40.3 | 5 | 49 | 19 | 27 | 1.7 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 21.9 15.5–29.5 | 91 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 (0–1) | ||
| Otros | 6.4 2.2–16.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 4.3 1.5–9.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.8 0.6–4.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 148 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 125 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 218 %
- PP 3 · Vox 14 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Luisa Fernanda Rudi Úbeda | PP | 191,671 |
| María del Rocío Divar Conde | PP | 184,753 |
| José Manuel Aranda Lassa | PP | 181,503 |
| Miguel Carmelo Dalmau Blanco | PSOE | 165,978 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.0 | 3 | 3 |
| PSOE | 30.8 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 15.3 | 1 | 1 |
| CHA-Frente Amplio | 13.5 | 1 | 1 |
| EXISTE | 1.5 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 38 % | PP · 35 % |
| 2 | Vox · 32 % | PSOE · 30 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 23 % | Vox · 24 % |
| 4 | CHA-Frente Amplio · 6 % | CHA-Frente Amplio · 10 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 14,176 (interquartile range 5,731–29,561), 2.57 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 27,273 |
| 2011 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 4,637 |
| 2015 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 3,108 |
| 2016 | PP | IU/UP/Sumar | 9,166 |
| 2019A | PSOE | Cs | 33 |
| 2019N | PSOE | Cs | 4,331 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 13,460 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.