Asturias: A Three-Way Fight for the Seventh Seat Among the PP, the PSOE and Vox
Like Huesca, Asturias has voted like Spain in all seven general elections since 2008. For November 29, our model gives three seats to the conservative People's Party (PP), two to the Socialists (PSOE) and one to Vox, and leaves the seventh as a three-way fight: the PP wins it in 36% of simulations, the PSOE in 32% and Vox in 24%. Frente Amplio (Broad Front), the successor to Sumar, keeps Sumar's seat in only 14.5%.
22 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español
Our daily series on Spain’s 52 electoral districts continues with Asturias, a region on the northern coast that shares an oddity with Huesca: in all seven general elections held since 2008, the party with the most votes in Asturias has also been the party with the most votes nationwide. It elects seven members of Congress (eight until 2016) and almost never splits its seats the same way twice in a row: from 2008 to 2023 the split repeated only once, from 2015 to 2016.
Seven elections, seven hits and a map that never sits still
| Election | Seats | Top parties (% of valid votes) | Turnout, residents | Like Spain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE 46.9%PP 41.6%IU/Podemos/Sumar 7.2% | 73.8% | ✓ | |
| 2011 | PP 35.4%PSOE 29.3%Others 16.8% | 70.3% | ✓ | |
| 2015 | PP 30.1%IU/Podemos/Sumar 29.8%PSOE 23.3% | 71.2% | ✓ | |
| 2016 | PP 35.3%PSOE 24.9%IU/Podemos/Sumar 23.9% | 68.2% | ✓ | |
| Apr. 2019 | PSOE 33.1%PP 17.9%IU/Podemos/Sumar 17.1% | 73.4% | ✓ | |
| Nov. 2019 | PSOE 33.3%PP 23.2%IU/Podemos/Sumar 16.0% | 65.5% | ✓ | |
| 2023 | PP 35.6%PSOE 34.3%IU/Podemos/Sumar 14.8% | 71.1% | ✓ | |
| 2026 forecast | PP 34.0% (25.8–42.8)PSOE 30.0% (21.6–39.2)Vox 19.3% (13.1–26.7)Others 15.0%Blank 1.8% | 72.8% | – |
2026: PP seat no. 1, 100% · PSOE seat no. 1, 100% · PP seat no. 2, 100% · Vox seat no. 1, 100% · PSOE seat no. 2, 99% · PP seat no. 3, 83% · PSOE seat no. 3, 50%; the striped seat is a toss-up.
Few provinces have seen so many upsets. In 2008 the PSOE won with 47% and tied the PP at four seats. In 2011 Foro Asturias, the party of Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, burst in with almost 15% and one seat. In 2015 Podemos and IU (United Left) together reached almost 30% and finished three tenths of a point behind the PP. In April 2019 the PP collapsed to 18% and a single seat, tied with Ciudadanos and Vox. And in 2023 the PP won again, but by only 1.3 points (35.6% to 34.3%): it took three seats, the PSOE two, and Vox and Sumar one each.
The forecast: a three-way fight for the seventh seat
The model gives the PP 34% of the vote (between 26% and 43% with 95% probability), the PSOE 29% (22–38%), Vox 19% (13–26%), Frente Amplio 7% (3–14%) and Podemos, which is running on its own, 5% (2–10%).
Six of the seven seats are fairly clear: two for the PP (100%), two for the PSOE (99%), one for Vox (100%) and the PP’s third (85%). The seventh is a three-way fight: the PP wins it in 36% of simulations, the PSOE in 32%, Vox in 24% and Frente Amplio in 6%. In the central scenario it is the PSOE’s third seat, which the PSOE wins in 45% of simulations, ahead of Vox’s second (39%). Spain allocates seats with the D’Hondt method, and in half of the simulations the margin that decides this seat is under 13,200 votes.
The seat Sumar won in 2023 is the one in the worst shape: Frente Amplio keeps it in only 14.5% of simulations. With Podemos running separately, the vote that went to a single ballot in 2023 (14.8%) is split in two, and neither half comfortably reaches the quotient the last seat requires.
Town by town
Asturias’s municipal map is one of the most changeable in Spain. In 2008 the PSOE won 62 of the 78 councils (concejos); in 2011 the PP won 48; in April 2019 the PSOE won 72; and in 2023 the split was almost even: 40 for the PSOE and 38 for the PP. Between November 2019 and 2023, 30 councils changed winner, and since 2008, 63 of the 78 have done so at least once.
For 2026, the municipal estimate makes the PP the favorite in 51 councils (12 solid, 34 leaning and 5 toss-ups) and the PSOE in 27 (2, 16 and 9). Thirteen would change hands, all from the PSOE to the PP, among them Gijón, which the PSOE won in 2023 by four tenths of a point and where the PP is now a leaning favorite (75%), and Avilés (68%). Oviedo remains the PP’s great stronghold (98%), and the mining valleys the PSOE’s: Mieres (93%), Langreo (91%) and San Martín del Rey Aurelio (98%).
| Municipality | Voters | 2023 | Lead | 2026 favorite | First in | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gijón | 220,525 | PSOE | 0.4 pts | PP | 61% | Leaning |
| Oviedo | 173,514 | PP | 12.2 pts | PP | 95% | Leaning |
| Avilés | 63,026 | PSOE | 2.0 pts | PP | 54% | Toss-up |
| Siero | 43,249 | PP | 2.6 pts | PP | 71% | Leaning |
| Langreo | 32,414 | PSOE | 16.0 pts | PSOE | 93% | Leaning |
| Mieres | 31,567 | PSOE | 17.4 pts | PSOE | 95% | Solid |
| Castrillón | 18,688 | PP | 9.1 pts | PP | 90% | Leaning |
| San Martín del Rey Aurelio | 13,430 | PSOE | 22.9 pts | PSOE | 99% | Solid |
| Corvera de Asturias | 12,985 | PSOE | 12.9 pts | PSOE | 86% | Leaning |
| Villaviciosa | 12,560 | PP | 12.6 pts | PP | 94% | Leaning |
Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.
The sections that never change (and the ones that do)
Going one level further down, to the 804 census sections that have kept their code since 2008 (97% of voters), we can see which parts of Asturias are loyal and which move. By each section’s winner almost nothing looks stable, because 2011 (PP), 2015 (Podemos) and 2019 (PSOE) shifted the entire map. That is why we look at two steadier comparisons: who leads between the PP and the PSOE, and between the two blocs.
| In all seven general elections from 2008 to 2023… | Sections | Voters |
|---|---|---|
| the PSOE always ahead of the PP | 188 | 20% |
| the PP always ahead of the PSOE | 96 | 9% |
| changed at least once | 520 | 71% |
| the left (PSOE, IU, Podemos, Más País, Sumar) always ahead of the right (PP, Cs, Vox, Foro) | 295 | 32% |
| the right always ahead | 199 | 21% |
| the leading bloc changed at least once | 310 | 47% |
Almost two in three of the sections where the PSOE has always been ahead of the PP are in Gijón (75), Avilés (17) and the Mieres (17) and Langreo (12) valleys. Half of those that have always been the PP’s are in Oviedo: 48 of its 164 sections. The rest of Asturias is a place of passage: from November 2019 to 2023, 225 sections changed winner, 219 of them from the PSOE to the PP, and in 2023 there were 72 sections decided by less than two points. In Gijón, 171 of its 193 sections have changed winner at least twice.
These maps should be read for what they are: an estimate. The municipal one starts from each council’s 2023 vote, shifts it just enough for Asturias as a whole to match the forecast, and adds a local error, larger the smaller the council. The section map is not a forecast: it describes only what happened between 2008 and 2023.
Who votes in Asturias
Asturias has 1,026,726 residents and one of the oldest populations in Spain: there are 304 people aged 65 and over for every 100 under 15, compared with 171 in Spain, and 29% of Asturians are 65 or older (21% in Spain).
| Indicator | Asturias | Spain | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population density (people per km²) | 96.8 | 98.6 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591) and census tracts, July 1, 2026 |
| Municipalities | 78 | 8,132 | INE, municipal register via the Household Income Atlas, 2024 |
| Aging index (people 65+ per 100 under 15) | 304 | 171 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population aged 65 or older | 28.9% | 21.2% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population under 15 | 9.5% | 12.4% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population with foreign citizenship | 8.2% | 14.9% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Average net income per person | €16,646 | €15,948 | INE, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2024 |
| With a college or vocational degree | 33.2% | 31.9% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Employment rate | 41.6% | 46.8% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Unemployment rate | 17.9% | 17.2% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Employed in industry | 13.8% | 13.6% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
| Employed in services | 77.6% | 75.8% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
Three features help explain how it votes:
- A very old population. The pyramid narrows at the bottom: only 9.5% are under 15 (12.4% in Spain). With so many retirees, the census employment rate (42%) is five points below Spain’s, although unemployment is similar.
- More income per person, less per household. Income per person (€16,646) is slightly above Spain’s (€15,948), but income per household is lower (€37,097 vs. €40,605): Asturian households have fewer members.
- Little immigration. 8% of residents are foreign citizens, almost half the Spanish share (15%), and the overseas vote matters: in 2023, 1.5% of Asturias’s votes came from abroad.
How we calculated it
- History. Official Congress results (Spain’s Official Gazette, BOE) from 2008 to 2023, grouped by party family. Results by council come from the Interior Ministry’s polling-station files; adding the vote from Spaniards abroad, they match the BOE totals in all seven elections.
- Provincial forecast. altnalysis’s October 22 forecast, updated at midday (50,000 simulations).
- Municipal estimate. 4,000 simulations from the October 20 forecast. In each one, each council’s 2023 vote is shifted party by party, on a logistic scale, until the total (excluding the overseas vote, which is held at its 2023 split) matches the simulation; then a municipal error is added, fitted on changes between the 2015 and 2023 general elections. Solid: the favorite finishes first in at least 95% of simulations; leaning, between 60% and 95%; toss-up, below 60%.
- Sections. Interior Ministry polling-station files summed by census section; only the 804 sections with the same code in all seven elections. Blocs: right, PP, Cs, Vox and Foro; left, PSOE, IU, Podemos, Más País and Sumar.
- Demographics. INE (Spain’s statistics office): Continuous Population Statistics (July 1, 2026, provisional), Household Income Distribution Atlas (2024), 2021 Census and Labor Force Survey (second quarter of 2026). Municipal boundaries: es-atlas (from Spain’s National Geographic Institute).
- Code.
articulo_circ.py 33andsecciones_circ.py 33, in the altnalysis repository.