Pontevedra: The BNG Is Back in Sight, and the PP, Vox and the PSOE Fight for the Last Seat
The Galician nationalist BNG has not won a seat in Pontevedra since 2011, and our model gives it one in 92% of simulations. The conservative People's Party (PP) starts with three nearly certain seats and the Socialists (PSOE) with two; the last one up for grabs goes to the PP in 37% of simulations, to the PSOE in 24% and to Vox in 23%. Section by section, the PP wins the head-to-head against the PSOE, but the left combined is ahead in more neighborhoods.
22 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español
Our series on Spain’s 52 electoral districts reaches Galicia with Pontevedra, the region’s most populous province after A Coruña and home to Vigo, its largest city. It elects seven members of Congress and is a good place to look at the question that comes up most about Galician politics in a general election: how much of the BNG, which came second in the 2024 regional elections, makes it to Congress, and whose votes it takes.
Seven elections: from the PP’s absolute majority to a divided left
| Election | Seats | Top parties (% of valid votes) | Turnout, residents | Like Spain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP 43.7%PSOE 40.5%BNG 11.5% | 75.8% | ✗ | |
| 2011 | PP 50.8%PSOE 28.1%BNG 12.0% | 72.4% | ✓ | |
| 2015 | PP 34.5%IU/Podemos/Sumar 27.9%PSOE 20.8% | 74.3% | ✓ | |
| 2016 | PP 38.4%IU/Podemos/Sumar 25.2%PSOE 21.8% | 70.7% | ✓ | |
| Apr. 2019 | PSOE 32.2%PP 25.0%IU/Podemos/Sumar 18.6% | 75.1% | ✓ | |
| Nov. 2019 | PSOE 31.8%PP 29.1%IU/Podemos/Sumar 15.5% | 67.9% | ✓ | |
| 2023 | PP 39.7%PSOE 31.4%IU/Podemos/Sumar 13.2% | 73.7% | ✓ | |
| 2026 forecast | PP 36.5% (28.1–45.0)PSOE 27.2% (19.4–35.7)BNG 14.6% (8.5–23.3)Others 20.7%Blank 1.2% | 74.9% | – |
2026: PSOE seat no. 1, 100% · PP seat no. 1, 100% · PP seat no. 2, 100% · PSOE seat no. 2, 97% · PP seat no. 3, 94% · BNG seat no. 1, 93% · Vox seat no. 1, 39%; the striped seat is a toss-up.
The PP has won Pontevedra in five of the seven general elections since 2008; the PSOE won both 2019 elections. What has changed most is what happens to the left of the PSOE. In 2008 and 2011 the BNG won a seat with 11.5% and 12%. In 2015 and 2016 its space was taken by the Podemos tickets and their Galician alliances, which reached 28% and two seats, and the BNG fell to 4.6% and 3.1%. Since then the BNG has been rising (5.6% in April 2019, 7.5% in November, 9.4% in 2023) while Sumar fell to 13%, but it has not won a seat again. Vox, by contrast, has never passed 7.3% in the province, and in 2023 it stood at 4.8%.
The forecast: the BNG regains a seat and the last one is up in the air
The model gives the PP 36% of the vote (between 28% and 45% with 95% probability), the PSOE 26% (19–34%), the BNG 15% (8–25%), Vox 9% (6–13%), Frente Amplio (Broad Front), Sumar’s successor, 6% (3–12%) and Podemos 4% (1–8%). Compared with 2023, the BNG is up about five points, Vox almost as many, and the PSOE (five points), the PP (three) and the Sumar space, which is now divided, are down.
With those numbers, the BNG wins at least one seat in 92% of simulations (two or more in 12%). Three seats for the PP and two for the PSOE are nearly certain (95% and 97%). The seventh is the one at stake: the last seat goes to the PP in 37% of simulations, to the PSOE in 24%, to Vox in 23% and to the BNG in 13%. Put another way, Vox gets in in 38% of simulations, the PP wins a fourth seat in 31% and the PSOE a third in 24%; in the central scenario, the seventh goes to Vox. Spain allocates seats with the D’Hondt method, and in half of the simulations that last seat is decided by fewer than 9,600 votes. Frente Amplio, heir to the seat Sumar won in 2023, keeps it in only 8.5%.
The BNG’s range is very wide (8% to 26%): national polls barely measure it, because it runs only in Galicia, and its general-election vote has ranged from 3% to 12% since 2008. This is the province’s main uncertainty: if the BNG stays near 10%, the seventh seat is contested by the PP, the PSOE and Vox; if it passes 20%, it could fight for a second.
Town by town
The PP dominates the municipal map: it won all 62 municipalities the province had in 2011 and 56 of 61 in 2023. The PSOE contested the map only in 2008 (11 municipalities) and in 2019 (24 in April and 20 in November). Between November 2019 and 2023, 15 municipalities changed winner, and since 2008, 27 have done so at least once.
For 2026, the municipal estimate makes the PP the favorite in 59 municipalities (38 solid, 18 leaning and 3 toss-ups) and the PSOE in 2, both toss-ups. The tightest case is Vigo: the PSOE won in 2023 by almost six points and is now virtually tied with the PP (the PSOE finishes first in 55% of simulations), with the BNG at around 14%. Redondela would switch from the PSOE to the PP by the narrowest of margins. The BNG is not the favorite in any municipality, but it gets close to 25% in O Morrazo: Moaña (26%) and Cangas (22%).
| Municipality | Voters | 2023 | Lead | 2026 favorite | First in | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigo | 236,121 | PSOE | 5.9 pts | PSOE | 55% | Toss-up |
| Pontevedra | 66,534 | PP | 7.9 pts | PP | 92% | Leaning |
| Vilagarcía de Arousa | 30,541 | PP | 7.7 pts | PP | 92% | Leaning |
| Redondela | 24,385 | PSOE | 3.6 pts | PP | 53% | Toss-up |
| Cangas | 22,311 | PP | 6.2 pts | PP | 77% | Leaning |
| Marín | 19,883 | PP | 16.9 pts | PP | 98% | Solid |
| Ponteareas | 18,518 | PP | 6.4 pts | PP | 89% | Leaning |
| A Estrada | 17,049 | PP | 20.5 pts | PP | 99% | Solid |
| Moaña | 16,218 | PP | 6.1 pts | PP | 67% | Leaning |
| O Porriño | 16,105 | PP | 11.5 pts | PP | 96% | Solid |
Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.
The head-to-head and the blocs: two different maps
In the 699 census sections that have kept the same code since 2008 (97% of voters), Pontevedra tells two stories depending on what is compared:
| In all seven general elections from 2008 to 2023… | Sections | Voters |
|---|---|---|
| the PP always ahead of the PSOE | 187 | 21% |
| the PSOE always ahead of the PP | 39 | 5% |
| changed at least once | 473 | 74% |
| the left (PSOE, BNG, IU, Podemos, Más País, Sumar) always ahead of the right (PP, Cs, Vox) | 282 | 35% |
| the right always ahead | 112 | 13% |
| the leading bloc changed at least once | 305 | 52% |
In the head-to-head between the two big parties, the PP has almost five times as many loyal sections as the PSOE. But when the blocs are added up, the left has always been ahead in more than twice as many sections as the right. The split explains the difference: the right has concentrated almost all its vote in the PP (Vox has never passed 7.3%), while the left is divided among the PSOE, the BNG and the Sumar space. In Vigo, for example, the left has always been ahead in 166 of its 236 sections, but the PSOE has always beaten the PP in only 36. In A Estrada the opposite happens: the PP has beaten the PSOE in all seven elections in 12 of its 16 sections.
That is the axis that decides Pontevedra on November 29. If the BNG grows at the expense of the PSOE and Sumar, the left does not add votes, but it changes who takes its seats: the BNG regains its own and the PSOE moves away from a third. If Vox grows at the expense of the PP, the right does not add votes either, but the seventh seat can pass from the PP to Vox. From November 2019 to 2023, 161 sections changed winner, 156 of them from the PSOE to the PP, and in 2023 there were 48 sections decided by less than two points.
Who votes in Pontevedra
Pontevedra has 952,060 residents in 4,508 square kilometers (about 1,740 square miles): 211 people per square kilometer, more than double the Spanish average. Only 8% live in municipalities of fewer than 5,000 people.
| Indicator | Pontevedra | Spain | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population density (people per km²) | 211.2 | 98.6 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591) and census tracts, July 1, 2026 |
| Municipalities | 61 | 8,132 | INE, municipal register via the Household Income Atlas, 2024 |
| Population in municipalities under 5,000 people | 8.1% | 11.8% | INE, municipal register via the Household Income Atlas, 2024 |
| Aging index (people 65+ per 100 under 15) | 239 | 171 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population aged 65 or older | 25.3% | 21.2% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population with foreign citizenship | 6.4% | 14.9% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population born abroad | 8.9% | 15.3% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Average net income per person | €15,002 | €15,948 | INE, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2024 |
| With a college or vocational degree | 29.3% | 31.9% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Unemployment rate | 16.6% | 17.2% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Employed in agriculture | 4.8% | 3.5% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
| Employed in industry | 17.0% | 13.6% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
| Employed in services | 72.2% | 75.8% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
Three features help explain how it votes:
- More industry than Spain. 17% of workers are employed in industry, compared with 14% in Spain, and agriculture and fishing weigh somewhat more (4.8% vs. 3.5%). Services, somewhat less (72% vs. 76%).
- Aging, though less than Asturias. There are 239 people aged 65 and over for every 100 under 15 (171 in Spain), and 25% of the population is 65 or older.
- Little immigration. Only 6% of residents are foreign citizens, less than half the Spanish share, although almost 9% were born abroad (2021 census): a good share of them hold Spanish citizenship. The overseas vote made up 1.7% of the province’s votes in 2023.
How we calculated it
- History. Official Congress results (Spain’s Official Gazette, BOE) from 2008 to 2023, grouped by party family, with the BNG shown separately. Municipal results come from the Interior Ministry’s polling-station files; adding the vote from Spaniards abroad, they match the BOE totals in all seven elections. Cerdedo and Cotobade merged in 2016, hence the 62 municipalities in 2011.
- Provincial forecast. altnalysis’s October 22 forecast, updated at midday (50,000 simulations).
- Municipal estimate. 4,000 simulations from the October 20 forecast. In each one, each municipality’s 2023 vote is shifted party by party, on a logistic scale, until the total (excluding the overseas vote, which is held at its 2023 split) matches the simulation; then a municipal error is added, fitted on changes between the 2015 and 2023 general elections. Solid: the favorite finishes first in at least 95% of simulations; leaning, between 60% and 95%; toss-up, below 60%.
- Sections. Interior Ministry polling-station files summed by census section; only the 699 sections with the same code in all seven elections. Blocs: right, PP, Cs and Vox; left, PSOE, BNG, IU, Podemos, Más País and Sumar.
- Demographics. INE (Spain’s statistics office): Continuous Population Statistics (July 1, 2026, provisional), Household Income Distribution Atlas (2024), 2021 Census and Labor Force Survey (second quarter of 2026). Municipal boundaries: es-atlas (from Spain’s National Geographic Institute).
- Code.
articulo_circ.py 36andsecciones_circ.py 36, in the altnalysis repository.