Cáceres: The PSOE Won by Nine Tenths of a Point in 2023, and the PP and Vox Face a Coin Toss for Three of the Four Seats

In 2023 the PSOE won in Cáceres by nine tenths of a point and the four seats split two and two. For November 29, the model gives the PP and Vox together 55% of the vote and a majority of the vote in 83% of simulations, but three of the four members of Congress in only half (50%): with four seats, a majority of votes is not enough. The capital has leaned furthest right since 2008. The rural south has always been the most Socialist, and the north is where Vox is growing most, led by Talayuela and the Campo Arañuelo area.

26 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español

Four seats, two and two

Cáceres elects four members of Congress. In 2023 the PSOE won with 38.9% of the vote, against 38.0% for the PP, with Vox at 13.6% and Sumar at 6.9%. The four seats split two and two between the PSOE and the PP, as in 2008, 2011, 2015, 2016 and 2023. The exceptions were the two 2019 elections: in April, Ciudadanos took one of the PP’s seats, and in November it was Vox.

The October 26 forecast gives the PP 35.3% of the vote (between 26.5% and 44.7% in 95% of simulations), the PSOE 33.3% (24.0–43.3%) and Vox 19.4% (12.9–27.3%). Behind them are Frente Amplio, the successor to Sumar, at 4.0%; Se Acabó La Fiesta, at 2.0%; and Podemos, at 1.9%. The central scenario gives two seats to the PP, one to the PSOE and one to Vox.

A stronghold? In votes, probably; in seats, only half

In the forecast the PP and Vox together take 54.8% of the province’s vote (44.6–64.4%), and exceed half in 83% of simulations. In 2023 they took 51.6% and still won two seats out of four. The reason is arithmetic: with four seats and D’Hondt, getting three of four takes more than just topping 50% between the two; with the vote split between two parties, a PP 2 and Vox 1 allocation requires both that the PP get more votes than the PSOE and that Vox get more than half the PSOE’s votes.

The most likely allocation is PP 2, PSOE 1 and Vox 1, which occurs in 49% of simulations. It is followed by PP 1, PSOE 2 and Vox 1 (31%) and the two-and-two of 2023 between the PP and the PSOE, without Vox (18%). In total, the PP and Vox win three of the four seats in 50% of simulations: one in two. The province’s last seat is a three-way contest: the PP wins it in 41.5% of cases, the PSOE in 32% and Vox in 27%, with a median gap of about 8,700 votes.

The regional elections of December 21, 2025 drew a different province: in Cáceres the PP took 43.9%, the PSOE 25.3%, Vox 16.4% and Unidas por Extremadura 10.1%, with turnout of 60.3%. The PP and Vox together took 60%. A regional election is not a general election: turnout is lower, the candidates are different and so are the incentives. But they set the starting point for this campaign: in two and a half years, the PSOE has gone from winning the general election in the province to holding a quarter of the vote in the regional one.

North, south and capital

To compare areas within the province we group the 223 municipalities by judicial district. The north is the judicial districts of Coria, Plasencia and Navalmoral de la Mata: 140 municipalities, including Plasencia, Navalmoral, Coria, la Vera, el Jerte, las Hurdes, Sierra de Gata and the Campo Arañuelo. The south is those of Cáceres, Trujillo, Logrosán and Valencia de Alcántara: 82 municipalities plus the capital, which is treated separately. Roughly speaking, the Tagus separates the two halves. The north has 162,000 voters; the capital, 77,400; and the rest of the south, 83,200.

Three features have repeated since 2008:

• The capital is the area that leans furthest right. The PP won in the city of Cáceres in 2008, with 49.3% against 42.9% for the PSOE, when the PSOE swept the rest of the province. In 2023 the PP and Vox together took 55.1% there; the PSOE got 33.1%.
• The rural south is the most Socialist. In 2008 the PSOE took 55.6% in the south excluding the capital and 53.9% in the north; in 2023, 42.5% and 39.7%. It is also the oldest area (average age 49) and the one with the lowest income (€11,900 per person).
• The north is where Vox is growing most. In 2023 Vox took 14.5% in the north, against 12.6% in the south and 12.7% in the capital, and the model gives it 20.7% in the north on November 29.

In the December regional election all three areas moved in the same direction. The PP and Vox together took 64.9% in the capital, 59.2% in the north and 58.4% in the south, and the PSOE fell to 16.5%, 27.5% and 29.8%. The order among the areas did not change. The PP won 96 of the 140 municipalities in the north (in the 2023 regional election it had won 54) and 59 of the 83 in the south. Vox won five, all in the north.

For November 29, the municipal estimate gives the PP and Vox 57.3% in the capital, 54.6% in the north and 52.7% in the rest of the south. All three areas would have a PP and Vox majority, but none would reach the level of the regional election. The difference between north and south is small and within the uncertainty of any municipal estimate. What does separate the two halves is the PSOE: 36.6% in the rural south against 33.9% in the north.

Municipal map

In 2023 the PSOE won in 147 of the 223 municipalities, the PP in 75 and Vox in one, Valdehúncar. For November 29, the model makes the PSOE the favorite in 122, the PP in 87 and Vox in 14. There would be 32 changes of winner: 19 municipalities would go from the PSOE to the PP, six from the PSOE to Vox and seven from the PP to Vox. The 14 municipalities where Vox is the favorite are all in the north: twelve in the judicial district of Navalmoral de la Mata, one in las Hurdes (Ladrillar) and one in the district of Coria (Cachorrilla). The largest is Talayuela (4,297 voters), in the Campo Arañuelo: the PP won there in 2023, Vox took 37% in the December regional election and the model gives it a 69% chance of finishing first. Next are Saucedilla (66%) and Valdehúncar (74%). Almost all are small municipalities, so the probabilities are indicative: 72 municipalities are toss-ups (53 in the north) and only 18 have a “solid” favorite.

Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.

In the most populous towns, the PP starts ahead. It does so in the capital with an 88% chance, in Plasencia with 71%, in Navalmoral with 85%, in Coria with 68%, in Miajadas with 60% and in Trujillo with 86%. Moraleja, in Sierra de Gata, is a toss-up: the PSOE has a 56% chance of winning.

Inside the capital

In 2023 the PP was the most-voted party in 54 of the 74 sections of the city of Cáceres, and the PSOE in 20. The capital has not always looked like this: among the 68 sections that have kept the same code since 2008, the PSOE won 37 in November 2019 and the PP 31. In 2023 the PP rose to 51 and the PSOE fell to 17. Across the province, 398 census sections have the same code in all seven elections, covering 96% of the electorate. Seventy percent of those voters live in sections that have changed winner at least twice. Between November 2019 and 2023, 102 sections changed winner, 98 of them from the PSOE to the PP.

Turnout

In 2023, 73.8% of resident voters turned out, above the 69.0% of November 2019. By area, turnout was 74.7% in the capital, 72.4% in the north and 75.7% in the rest of the south. The December regional election came in at 63.3% of residents. The forecast for November 29 is 75.5% (70.1–80.6%). Each point of turnout is about 3,200 votes, and the median gap that decides the last seat is around 8,700.

The 2024 European elections

In the June 2024 European elections, with turnout of 49.5%, the PP took 41.2% in the province, the PSOE 36.4% and Vox 10.1%. Sumar and Podemos together took 5.0% and Se Acabó La Fiesta 3.2%. It was the last election before the shift seen in the regional election: the PSOE still held more than a third of the vote.

The Senate

Cáceres elects four senators. Until the candidacies are published, the model assumes a joint list of the PSOE and Frente Amplio. Under that assumption, the most likely allocation is one senator for the PP and three for the joint list (42%). Next come the reverse, three for the PP and one for the joint list (37%), and a two-two tie (19%). Vox wins a senator in only 2.5% of simulations. Under the Senate’s limited vote, in which each voter marks up to three of the four candidates, the top three places usually go to the most-voted party and the fourth to the runner-up.

Who votes in Cáceres

The province has 388,265 residents and is one of the oldest in Spain. A total of 26.3% are 65 or older (21.2% in Spain) and there are 243 people over 65 for every 100 under 15 (171 in Spain). Average income is €13,614 per person, against €15,948; the 2021 census unemployment rate is 22.2% (17.2%), and the foreign-citizen population is 5.4% (14.9%). Within the province, the capital is another world: 40% of its residents hold a college degree, against 21% in the north and 19% in the rest of the south, and its income per person is 26% higher.

These data describe where each electorate lives. They do not let us say how much of each party’s vote is explained by age, income or agriculture.

How we calculated it

• Areas. Judicial districts of the province of Cáceres, according to their Wikipedia pages (zonas_caceres.py). North: Coria, Plasencia and Navalmoral de la Mata; south: Cáceres, Trujillo, Logrosán and Valencia de Alcántara. The capital is treated separately. Two or three municipalities on the border between Plasencia and Navalmoral have an uncertain assignment; they do not change any area’s percentages.
• General elections. Official Congress results (Spain’s Official Gazette, BOE) from 2008 to 2023. By municipality and area, the Interior Ministry’s polling-station files, excluding the overseas vote: adding the overseas vote, they match the BOE in all seven elections. The PP and Vox “together” is a sum of votes, not a coalition.
• Regional elections. Extremadura Assembly elections of 2019, 2023 and 2025, by municipality, from the results published by RTVE (autonomicas_ext.py). Provincial figures match the official ones to within 0.15 points, and turnout is that of residents, excluding the overseas vote.
• Forecast. altnalysis’s October 26 forecast (50,000 simulations). Seat allocations and probabilities come from those simulations. The municipal and area estimate uses 4,000 simulations: in each one, each municipality’s 2023 vote is shifted until it reproduces the province, and then a municipal error is added. It shows where the battle is, not what a specific municipality will do.
• Sociology by area. 2023 census sections, weighted by population: Household Income Distribution Atlas and 2021 Census (INE, Spain’s statistics office).
• Senate. The Senate model’s simulations, with the PSOE and Frente Amplio on a joint list.
• Code. articulo_circ.py 10, secciones_circ.py 10, articulo_mapa_capital.py 10, zonas_caceres.py, autonomicas_ext.py and articulo_caceres.py, in the altnalysis repository.