Ciudad Real, the Page Test: the PSOE Wins Eleven Points More in Regional Elections Than in General Elections

In May 2023, Emiliano García-Page's PSOE took 46.6% of the vote in the province of Ciudad Real in the regional election. Two months later, in the general election, the PSOE got 35.4%. That regional premium of eleven points has recurred since 2015 and is among the highest in Castilla-La Mancha. On November 29 Page is not on the ballot, and the forecast gives the PSOE 30% in the province, five points less than in 2023. Its second seat, which is contested with the PP, is the province's last seat in 52% of simulations.

26 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español

Five seats, one up in the air

Ciudad Real elects five members of Congress. In 2023 the PP won with 40.5% of the vote and two seats. The PSOE took 35.4% and two more, and Vox 16.3% and one; Sumar got 6.2%. From 2008 to 2016 the PP won three seats in every election. In 2019, with Ciudadanos and Vox in the picture, the split broke up: in April, two for the PSOE and one each for the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox; in November, two for the PSOE, two for the PP and one for Vox.

The October 26 forecast gives the PP 37.3% of the vote (between 28.4% and 46.6% in 95% of simulations), the PSOE 29.8% (21.4–39.3%) and Vox 23.1% (15.8–31.7%). Frente Amplio, the successor to Sumar, would get 3.6%; Se Acabó La Fiesta, 2.3%; and Podemos, 1.4%. The central scenario repeats the 2023 split: two seats for the PP, two for the PSOE and one for Vox.

Why it bears watching

The province has one seat up in the air. The PSOE’s second seat holds in 70% of simulations, and its main challenger is the PP, which wins a third seat in 19%. Vox wins a second in 12.5%. The last seat in the allocation goes to the PSOE in 52% of cases, to the PP in 33% and to Vox in 14%, with a median gap of about 14,000 votes (half of simulations fall between 6,300 and 25,500). With about 386,000 resident voters, that is almost four points of turnout.

It is also a province that swings a lot. From 2008 to 2023, 86 of its 102 municipalities changed winner at least once. The PSOE won in 92 in April 2019, and the PP in 54 in 2023.

The regional premium

In Castilla-La Mancha, the PSOE gets many more votes when the regional government is being elected than when Spain’s is. We call this difference the regional premium: the PSOE’s extra share in regional elections compared with general elections. In Ciudad Real it was 8.6 points in 2015, 12.0 in 2019 and 11.2 in 2023. The 2019 and 2023 regional elections were held very close to a general election: one month after the April 2019 one and two months before the July 2023 one. There was no time for opinion to change much, so the difference mainly measures how many voters choose the PSOE for the regional government and another party for Congress.

The premium is not exclusive to Ciudad Real. It appears in all five provinces, and Ciudad Real ranks second, behind Toledo (13.1 points in 2023) and ahead of Cuenca (10.1), Guadalajara (9.3) and Albacete (8.2). In the 2023 regional election in Ciudad Real, the PP took six points less than in the general election and Vox four less. Regional turnout was lower: 71.1% of residents, against 74.4% in the general election.

Municipality by municipality

In 101 municipalities of the province there are data for both 2023 elections, and the PSOE did better in the regional election in every one of them. The median premium is 12.9 points and ranges from 1.3 to 36.1. It is larger in villages: 13.5 points in municipalities with fewer than 1,000 voters and 8.5 in those with more than 20,000. In 43 municipalities, the PSOE was the most-voted party in the May regional election but not in the July general election.

Among the cities, the premium is smaller where the PSOE is weaker in general elections, such as the capital (6.9 points), and in Puertollano (5.8), where it is already strong. It is larger in Manzanares (15.4), Valdepeñas (13.8) and Daimiel (11.8). Among municipalities with more than 1,000 voters, the largest are Aldea del Rey (22.0), Viso del Marqués (20.5) and Piedrabuena (19.0).

The November 29 test

On November 29 voters do not choose the president of Castilla-La Mancha but the members of Congress, and Page is not on the ballot. Page has governed with an absolute majority since 2019 and has publicly distanced himself from his party’s federal leadership in several debates. What November 29 can measure is whether some of the voters who give him the premium also return to the PSOE in the general election or, on the contrary, whether the PSOE’s general-election vote falls in the province as it does in the rest of Spain.

The model does not account for regional leaders. It projects the province from national polls and from how it has historically moved relative to the country as a whole, and gives the PSOE 29.8%, five and a half points less than in 2023. Nationally it gives the PSOE 27.4%, four less than in 2023. If part of Page’s premium carries over to the general election, the PSOE in Ciudad Real should finish above that figure and its second seat would be safer. If not, it will fight the PP for it to the end. Across Castilla-La Mancha as a whole, the forecast gives the PSOE between five and ten of the 21 seats (seven, the median).

Municipal map

For November 29, the model makes the PP the favorite in 66 of the 102 municipalities, the PSOE in 31 and Vox in five. There would be 18 changes of winner relative to 2023: 13 municipalities would go from the PSOE to the PP, four from the PSOE to Vox and one from the PP to Vox. Only three municipalities have a “solid” favorite, 55 have a “leaning” favorite and 44 are toss-ups. Vox is the favorite in small municipalities: Fuente el Fresno, Puebla de Don Rodrigo, Fuencaliente, Retuerta del Bullaque and Fontanarejo. In all of them the probability is between 35% and 64%.

Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.

In the capital, the PP starts with a 95% chance of finishing first. Puertollano, where the PSOE won in 2023 with 40.7% against 36.2% for the PP, is a toss-up: the PSOE finishes first in 54% of simulations. In Alcázar de San Juan, which the PSOE won in 2023, the PP is slightly ahead (56%, a toss-up), and Manzanares leans toward the PP (62%). Miguelturra is the tightest race: the PSOE finishes first in 47% of simulations and the rest is split between the PP and Vox.

Inside the capital

In 2023 the PP was the most-voted party in 50 of the 55 sections of the city of Ciudad Real, and the PSOE in five. Among the 47 sections that have kept the same code since 2008, the PP won 41 in 2008, 25 in November 2019 (against 22 for the PSOE) and 43 in 2023. In Puertollano it is the other way around. The PSOE won 35 of its 36 sections in November 2019 and 20 in 2023; eight have stayed loyal to it in all seven elections. Across the province, 132 sections changed winner between November 2019 and 2023, 122 of them from the PSOE to the PP. And 117 were decided in 2023 by less than five points.

The Senate

Ciudad Real elects four senators. Under the model’s assumption of a joint list of the PSOE and Frente Amplio, the most likely allocation is three for the PP and one for the joint list (54.5%). Next come one and three in favor of the joint list (18%), the two-two tie (15%) and three for the PP and one for Vox (7%).

The 2024 European elections

In the June 2024 European elections, with turnout of 50.1%, the PP took 43.7% in the province, the PSOE 32.9% and Vox 11.7%. Sumar and Podemos together took 4.4% and Se Acabó La Fiesta 4.1%.

Who votes in Ciudad Real

The province has 500,441 residents and 102 municipalities. A total of 22.5% are 65 or older (21.2% in Spain). Average income is €13,408 per person, against €15,948, and the 2021 census unemployment rate was 21.1% (17.2%). Agriculture employs 7.8% of workers, against 3.5% in Spain as a whole.

How we calculated it

• General elections. Official Congress results (Spain’s Official Gazette, BOE) from 2008 to 2023. By municipality, the Interior Ministry’s polling-station files, excluding the overseas vote: adding the overseas vote, they match the BOE in all seven elections.
• Regional elections. Castilla-La Mancha results of 2019 and 2023 by municipality, and of 2015 by province, from the results published by RTVE (autonomicas_clm.py), excluding the overseas vote. The sum of the municipalities is less than 1% below the official 2023 totals, which do include the overseas vote. One municipality has no comparable data for the two elections.
• Regional premium. The PSOE’s share in the regional election minus its share in the nearest general election, in points of valid votes among residents. For 2015 it is compared with the December general election, seven months after the regional one.
• Forecast. altnalysis’s October 26 forecast (50,000 simulations); seat and last-seat probabilities come from those simulations. The municipal estimate uses 4,000 simulations: in each one, each municipality’s 2023 vote is shifted until it reproduces the province, and then a municipal error is added. It shows where the battle is, not what a specific municipality will do.
• Senate. The Senate model’s simulations, with the PSOE and Frente Amplio on a joint list.
• Demographics. INE (Spain’s statistics office): Continuous Population Statistics, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2021 Census and Labor Force Survey.
• Code. articulo_circ.py 13, secciones_circ.py 13, articulo_mapa_capital.py 13, autonomicas_clm.py and articulo_ciudad_real.py, in the altnalysis repository.