Huelva and Almería, the Two Faces of Andalusia: the Last Socialist Stronghold and the Cradle of Vox

Huelva and Almería have a lot in common: intensive agriculture, low incomes and a long coastline. They vote very differently. In 2008 the PSOE took 56% in Huelva and the PP 50% in Almería. Fifteen years later, Huelva was still among the three Andalusian provinces where the PSOE held up best, and Almería was where Vox had been strongest. For November 29, the model gives Vox 28% in Almería and 21% in Huelva, and three parties are fighting over the last seat in both.

27 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español

Two similar provinces that vote differently

Huelva and Almería sit at opposite ends of Andalusia and share quite a lot. Agriculture employs 20% of workers in Huelva and 16% in Almería, compared with 3.5% in Spain as a whole. Their average incomes are among the lowest in the country: €12,765 and €12,244 per person, against €15,948. Both have strawberry or greenhouse farming, a large foreign labor force in the fields and a coastline that has grown with tourism.

Politically, however, they have gone in opposite directions. For decades Huelva was the quintessential Socialist stronghold of western Andalusia. Almería is the province where Vox made its first big leap, in the 2018 regional election. In the 2019 general elections it was the most-voted party in municipalities such as El Ejido and Níjar, and in November it took two of the province’s six seats.

In 2008 the PSOE took 55.7% in Huelva and 42.0% in Almería: a gap of almost fourteen points. In 2023 the gap was still seven points (36.0% versus 29.0%). The PSOE’s decline has been similar in both, but Huelva started from much higher. That is why it remains, along with Seville and Jaén, one of the three Andalusian provinces where the PSOE holds up best: in 2023 it finished four tenths of a point behind the PP (36.4%). In Almería, Vox took its best Andalusian result in 2023.

The other half of the story is Vox. In November 2019 it took 26.7% in Almería, one of its best results in Spain, and 20.9% in Huelva. In 2023 it fell in both, to 21.3% and 14.6%, but the gap held at six or seven points.

Regional elections: the PP sweeps both

In the Andalusian Parliament the two provinces look more alike. In 2022 and in May 2026 the PP was above 40% in both:

• Huelva: 42.7% in 2022 and 40.9% in 2026, with the PSOE at 27.4% and 25.2%.
• Almería: 45.5% and 42.9%, with Vox at 20.7% and 23.2% and the PSOE at 22.1% and 21.5%.

What distinguishes the two is still there. Huelva is the province where the PSOE holds up somewhat better and where Adelante Andalucía grows most (8.0% in 2026). Almería is where Vox remains highest.

What the forecast says

Huelva elects five members of Congress. In 2023 the split was PP 2, PSOE 2 and Vox 1. The forecast repeats that split in the central scenario:

• Votes: PP 32.1% (24.0–40.5%), PSOE 27.2% (19.1–36.1%) and Vox 20.8% (14.1–28.6%).
• Last seat: the PSOE wins it in 50% of simulations, the PP in 32% and Vox in 13%, with a median gap of about 11,400 votes.

Almería elects six members of Congress. In 2023 it was PP 3, PSOE 2 and Vox 1; the central scenario for November 29 is PP 3, Vox 2 and PSOE 1.

• Votes: PP 35.5% (27.4–44.0%), Vox 27.7% (19.6–36.8%) and PSOE 23.1% (16.3–30.8%).
• Last seat: all three share it (PP 41%, PSOE 30%, Vox 28%), with a median gap of about 10,000 votes.
• The PSOE’s second seat: it holds in fewer than half of simulations (47%).

The maps

In Huelva the PSOE won in 57 of the 80 municipalities in 2023 (in 76 in 2008). For November 29 the model makes it the favorite in 49, the PP in 28 and Vox in one, Almonte, where the forecast is a toss-up (52%); in two very small towns in the Sierra, Corteconcepción and Valdelarco, the “others” group leads, which in the municipal estimate includes Adelante Andalucía.

• The western coast, already PP: Lepe (90% probability), Punta Umbría (79%), Ayamonte (78%) and Isla Cristina (68%). Cartaya is a toss-up (52%).
• The PSOE holds up inland: the Cuenca Minera, the Sierra and the Andévalo.
• The capital, divided: the PP won it in 2023 with 36.3% against the PSOE’s 34.0%, but the PSOE was the most-voted party in 67 of its 106 stable sections. The PP’s vote is concentrated in fewer neighborhoods. For November 29, the PP is the favorite in the city at 72%.

In Almería the PP won in 69 of the 103 municipalities in 2023 and the PSOE in 34. For November 29 the model makes the PP the favorite in 69, the PSOE in 24 and Vox in 10.

• Municipalities where Vox is the favorite: almost all are in the capital’s metropolitan area and in the Poniente. The largest are Vícar (75%) and Huércal de Almería (56%), followed by Viator, Pechina and Benahadux.
• El Ejido and Níjar, the two big greenhouse municipalities, are toss-ups between the PP and Vox: the PP is the favorite at 54% and 53%.
• The capital, in PP hands: in 2023 it won 76 of the 119 stable sections, whereas in November 2019 the PSOE had won 71.

Why they vote differently

The data let us describe the differences, not attribute the vote to them. Three stand out:

• Immigration. One in four residents of Almería holds foreign citizenship (24.1%), double the share in Huelva (12.3%). It is one of the highest proportions in Spain and is concentrated in the Poniente and in Níjar. But the foreign population does not vote in general elections: what is measured is where they live, not how they vote.
• Age. Almería is younger: 15% of its population is under 15 and there are 112 people over 65 for every 100 under 15, compared with 13% and 147 in Huelva. An older population tends to vote more for the PSOE, and a younger one more for Vox, although that is not enough to explain the difference.
• History. Huelva has a longer working-class and industrial tradition (the Polo Químico chemical hub, the Cuenca Minera) and a very extensive network of Socialist mayors. It is an interpretation, not a measurement, but it is in the mining and mountain interior that the PSOE has held up best.

None of these features explains the vote on its own. Correlation is not causation, and data aggregated by province or municipality do not let us know what each person votes.

Senate and European elections

• Senate. In Huelva, the most likely split is three senators for the PP and one for the joint PSOE–Frente Amplio list (83%). In Almería Vox runs a full list. The most likely outcome is PP 3 and Vox 1 (43%), followed by PP 3 and the joint list 1 (27%).
• 2024 European elections. The PP won in both: 38.4% in Huelva and 42.9% in Almería. The PSOE took 35.3% and 26.7%, and Vox 10.2% and 15.2%. Even in a low-turnout election, the difference between the two provinces held.

How we calculated it

• General elections. Official Congress results (BOE) from 2008 to 2023. By municipality and section, the Interior Ministry’s polling-station files, excluding the overseas vote.
• Regional elections. Andalusian Parliament elections of 2018, 2022 and May 17, 2026, by municipality, from the results published by RTVE (autonomicas_and.py). The 2022 provincial totals match the official ones (BOJA, Andalusia’s official gazette) to within 0.05 points.
• Forecast. The altnalysis forecast of October 27 (50,000 simulations). Municipal estimates are indicative: they show where the battle is, not what a specific municipality will do.
• Demographics. INE (Spain’s statistics office): Continuous Population Statistics, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2021 Census and Labor Force Survey.
• Code. articulo_circ.py 21 and 04, secciones_circ.py, autonomicas_and.py and articulo_huelva_almeria.py, in the altnalysis repository.