Towns and Cities: The New Left Is Urban, and Vox Does Not Distinguish by Size
In Spain the gap between rural and urban voting is smaller than is commonly believed, with one exception. The left of the PSOE (Podemos, Sumar, Más País) wins almost twice as much in big cities as in small towns, and Ciudadanos was also an urban party. The PSOE is somewhat stronger in towns; the PP, at the extremes. In 2023, Vox won the same in a hamlet as in Madrid: 12%. And turnout is higher in towns. We analyze the seven general elections from 2008 to 2023, municipality by municipality.
30 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español
Five Spains by size
We have added up the polling-station results of the seven general elections from 2008 to 2023 in each of the 8,131 municipalities. We grouped them by number of resident voters:
- Fewer than 2,000 voters: 6,188 municipalities, with 2.8 million potential voters in 2023. That is three out of four municipalities in Spain, but only 8% of the electoral roll.
- 2,000 to 10,000: about 1,345 municipalities and 6.1 million voters.
- 10,000 to 50,000: about 490 mid-sized cities and 9.9 million.
- 50,000 to 200,000: 89 cities and 8.5 million.
- More than 200,000: the 15 largest cities, with 7.9 million.
Under 2,000 voters
2,000–10,000
10,000–50,000
50,000–200,000
Over 200,000
The new left, an urban phenomenon
This is the largest and most stable difference. In 2015, Podemos and its allies won 26.7% in cities of more than 200,000 voters and 16.3% in municipalities of fewer than 2,000. In 2023, Sumar and its allies won 15.2% versus 8.2%. In every election, the left of the PSOE has won between 1.5 and 2 times as much in big cities as in towns. Ciudadanos followed the same pattern: 17.6% in big cities in April 2019 versus 11.8% in towns. Both new parties of the 2010s were born urban and never took root in rural Spain.
Two-party politics holds up better in towns
- The PSOE has been somewhat stronger in towns than in big cities in every election. The gap was widest in 2015, at 26.8% versus 18.2%, when Podemos was competing with it for the urban vote. In 2023 it narrowed to 32.3% versus 30.0%.
- The PP looks more similar at the two extremes. In 2015 and 2016 it held up better in towns (34.4% versus 29.6% in 2015), because Ciudadanos took more of its vote in cities. In 2023, with Ciudadanos gone, it won almost the same: 34.3% in towns and 34.9% in big cities.
When new parties appear, urban voters are the first to notice; in towns, the vote changes more slowly. When the new parties deflate, the vote goes back to looking alike everywhere.
Vox, the same everywhere
This is perhaps the most striking finding. Vox is neither a rural nor an urban party: in 2023 it won 12.1% in municipalities of fewer than 2,000 voters, 12.9% in mid-sized cities and 12.3% in big ones. In November 2019 the same happened, with results between 13.8% and 15.8%. Its map is explained by other things, such as region, age or intensive agriculture (we saw this in the article on Huelva and Almería), not by municipality size.
Nationalists and turnout
- Nationalist and regionalist parties win twice as much in towns as in big cities: 10.1% versus 5.2% in 2023. In Catalonia, the Basque Country and Galicia, their vote is more rural than that of the nationwide parties.
- Turnout is higher in towns. In 2023, 74.7% of residents of municipalities with fewer than 2,000 voters cast a ballot, versus 71.0% in big cities. This holds in every election.
And before 2008
The full story starts earlier. A widespread idea is that rural Spain was for decades the electoral heartland of the PSOE and, later, of the PP. To check this with data, we need the municipality-level results of the 1982 to 2004 general elections, published by the Interior Ministry. We have not been able to download them automatically. We will extend this analysis once we have them, so as not to claim anything we cannot measure.
What to keep in mind
- Size is not the only thing that changes. The groups mix different regions. For example, Castilla y León, Aragón and Castilla-La Mancha weigh heavily among municipalities of fewer than 2,000 voters, and Madrid and Barcelona among the big cities. Part of the differences is geographic and not about size.
- These are aggregate results. That a party wins more in towns says nothing about how each individual person votes.
- We use the electoral roll, not the population. The brackets are defined by resident voters in each election, so some municipalities change group from one election to the next.
How we calculated it
- Data. Polling-station results of the 2008 to 2023 general elections (Interior Ministry), added up by municipality excluding the overseas vote. Adding the overseas vote, they reproduce the official BOE totals in all seven elections. Votes are grouped by family: “Sumar and allies” includes IU, Podemos, Unidas Podemos, Sumar, Más País and Compromís, and “nationalists and regionalists,” CiU and Junts, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG, Coalición Canaria and other parties with their own territorial scope.
- Brackets. By resident voters in the municipality in each election: fewer than 2,000; 2,000 to 10,000; 10,000 to 50,000; 50,000 to 200,000; and more than 200,000.
- Code.
municipios_historico.py, in the altnalysis repository.