8 seats · estimated turnout 73.8 % (2023: 62.9 %)
Coruña (A)
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP38.5 %29.3–47.2
PSOE23.3 %16.6–30.6
BNG15.4 %8.2–26.3
Vox9.6 %6.3–13.6
Frente Amplio6.0 %2.6–11.5
Podemos3.6 %1.2–8.0
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.6 %0.6–3.5
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 23 | 66 | 10 | 4 (3–5) | ||||||
| PSOE | 5 | 77 | 18 | 2 (1–3) | ||||||
| BNG | 4 | 73 | 21 | 2 | 1 (0–3) | |||||
| Vox | 34 | 66 | 1 (0–1) | |||||||
| Frente Amplio | 91 | 9 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for Vox: 66 %; challenger BNG (23 %).
Senate
The Senate in Coruña (A)
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 38.9 29.8–47.6 | 7 | 9 | 83 | 2.8 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 28.5 21.1–36.7 | 4 | 81 | 9 | 6 | 1.2 (0–3) | |
| BNG | 15.5 8.3–26.6 | 96 | 3 | 1 | 0.1 (0–1) | ||
| Vox | 9.7 6.4–13.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.6 1.2–8.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.2 0.5–4.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.6 0.6–3.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 181 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 29 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 16 %
- PP 3 · BNG 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Rosa María Gallego Neira | PP | 282,314 |
| Verónica María Casal Míguez | PP | 274,545 |
| Manuel Santos Ruiz Rivas | PP | 271,990 |
| José Antonio Sánchez Bugallo | PSdeG-PSOE | 191,809 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 43.1 | 4 | 4 |
| PSOE | 28.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Frente Amplio | 12.2 | 1 | 1 |
| BNG | 10.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Vox | 5.1 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 41 % | PP · 34 % |
| 2 | Vox · 23 % | PSOE · 28 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 20 % | BNG · 16 % |
| 4 | BNG · 13 % | Vox · 16 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,724 (interquartile range 4,418–27,220), 1.70 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 6,146 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 14,942 |
| 2015 | Cs | PP | 5,567 |
| 2016 | PP | Cs | 3,294 |
| 2019A | PP | PSOE | 7,601 |
| 2019N | BNG | VOX | 3,905 |
| 2023 | BNG | PSOE | 3,016 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.