4 seats · estimated turnout 71.2 % (2023: 65.5 %)
Araba/Álava
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PSOE22.7 %13.3–31.2
EH Bildu20.9 %10.6–37.8
PP17.7 %10.1–24.9
EAJ-PNV16.0 %7.8–30.2
Vox7.4 %4.0–11.2
Frente Amplio7.1 %2.7–14.0
Podemos4.8 %1.5–10.7
Se Acabó La Fiesta0.9 %0.3–2.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 3 | 75 | 22 | 1 (0–2) | ||
| EH Bildu | 7 | 80 | 12 | 1 | 1 (0–2) | |
| PP | 12 | 86 | 3 | 1 (0–2) | ||
| EAJ-PNV | 29 | 67 | 3 | 1 (0–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for EAJ-PNV: 71 %; challenger PSOE (22 %).
Senate
The Senate in Araba/Álava
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 28.9 17.2–38.9 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 71 | 2.5 (0–3) | |
| EH Bildu | 21.0 10.6–37.9 | 45 | 35 | 7 | 13 | 0.9 (0–3) | |
| PP | 17.8 10.2–25.0 | 65 | 32 | 2 | 0.4 (0–2) | ||
| EAJ-PNV | 16.1 7.8–30.3 | 82 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0.3 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 7.5 4.1–11.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 4.8 1.5–10.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.0 0.8–7.3 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · EH Bildu 132 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 131 %
- EH Bildu 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 110 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · EAJ-PNV 18 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Julia María Liberal Liberal | PSE-EE (PSOE) | 45,868 |
| Adolfo Lander Vera | PSE-EE (PSOE) | 42,738 |
| Paula Somalo García | PSE-EE (PSOE) | 42,148 |
| Josu Estarrona Elizondo | EH BILDU-INDEPENDENTZIA EZKERRETIK | 35,535 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 27.7 | 1 | 1 |
| EH Bildu | 19.5 | 1 | 1 |
| PP | 17.9 | 1 | 1 |
| EAJ-PNV | 16.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 12.8 | – | – |
| Vox | 3.9 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | EAJ-PNV · 33 % | PSOE · 34 % |
| 2 | PP · 22 % | EH Bildu · 24 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 21 % | EAJ-PNV · 21 % |
| 4 | EH Bildu · 19 % | PP · 14 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 5,670 (interquartile range 2,258–11,808), 3.10 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PNV | PSOE | 6,618 |
| 2011 | PNV | PP | 5,943 |
| 2015 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 750 |
| 2016 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 312 |
| 2019A | Bildu | PP | 181 |
| 2019N | Bildu | PP | 974 |
| 2023 | PNV | PSOE | 3,125 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.