5 seats · estimated turnout 76.4 % (2023: 72.3 %)
Castellón/Castelló
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP34.5 %26.6–43.1
PSOE27.4 %20.3–35.1
Vox23.1 %16.6–30.4
Compromís-Front Valencià9.9 %4.6–18.3
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.1 %0.7–4.6
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 3 | 84 | 13 | 2 (1–3) | |||
| PSOE | 39 | 61 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 84 | 16 | 1 (1–2) | ||||
| Compromís-Front Valencià | 87 | 13 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 61 %; challenger Vox (16 %).
Senate
The Senate in Castellón/Castelló
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 36.4 28.3–45.3 | 2 | 33 | 21 | 45 | 2.1 (1–3) | |
| PP | 35.0 27.0–43.5 | 3 | 44 | 21 | 33 | 1.8 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 23.4 16.9–30.7 | 94 | 5 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 3.1 0.9–7.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.1 0.7–4.6 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 143 %
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 132 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 220 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · Vox 12 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Vicente Martínez Mus | PP | 111,393 |
| Susana Marqués Escoín | PP | 109,397 |
| Amparo Marco Gual | PSOE | 107,391 |
| Vicente Tejedo Tormo | PP | 105,932 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 35.2 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 32.7 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 15.9 | 1 | 1 |
| Compromís-Front Valencià | 14.4 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 50 % | PP · 33 % |
| 2 | PP · 28 % | Vox · 29 % |
| 3 | Vox · 15 % | PSOE · 28 % |
| 4 | Compromís-Front Valencià · 8 % | Compromís-Front Valencià · 10 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 10,606 (interquartile range 4,553–20,375), 3.21 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 7,623 |
| 2011 | PSOE | PP | 6,211 |
| 2015 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 7,308 |
| 2016 | Cs | IU/UP/Sumar | 5,321 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | VOX | 3,053 |
| 2019N | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 2,776 |
| 2023 | VOX | IU/UP/Sumar | 2,364 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.