6 seats · estimated turnout 72.0 % (2023: 64.7 %)
Gipuzkoa
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
EH Bildu31.2 %17.4–50.1
EAJ-PNV22.2 %11.7–38.6
PSOE19.9 %10.1–28.9
PP10.3 %5.1–15.5
Frente Amplio5.3 %1.9–10.7
Vox4.6 %2.2–7.4
Podemos3.5 %1.0–8.1
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EH Bildu | 7 | 49 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 2 (1–4) | ||
| EAJ-PNV | 1 | 45 | 45 | 7 | 2 (1–3) | |||
| PSOE | 4 | 54 | 41 | 1 | 1 (0–2) | |||
| PP | 52 | 48 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
1.º seat for PP: 48 %; challenger EH Bildu (44 %).
Senate
The Senate in Gipuzkoa
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EH Bildu | 31.4 17.6–50.3 | 9 | 23 | 13 | 55 | 2.1 (0–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 24.4 12.5–35.0 | 33 | 38 | 10 | 19 | 1.2 (0–3) | |
| EAJ-PNV | 22.4 11.8–38.7 | 56 | 29 | 6 | 10 | 0.7 (0–3) | |
| PP | 10.4 5.1–15.7 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Vox | 4.7 2.2–7.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.5 1.0–8.1 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 2.4 0.6–5.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- EH Bildu 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 133 %
- EH Bildu 3 · EAJ-PNV 122 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · EH Bildu 114 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 2 · EH Bildu 28 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Gorka Elejabarrieta Díaz | EH BILDU-INDEPENDENTZIA EZKERRETIK | 118,906 |
| Olaia Duarte Lopez | EH BILDU-INDEPENDENTZIA EZKERRETIK | 117,073 |
| Mario Zubiaga Garate | EH BILDU-INDEPENDENTZIA EZKERRETIK | 112,565 |
| Luke Uribe-Etxebarria Apalategi | EAJ-PNV | 90,080 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| EH Bildu | 31.2 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 23.3 | 2 | 2 |
| EAJ-PNV | 22.6 | 2 | 2 |
| Frente Amplio | 10.6 | – | – |
| PP | 8.7 | – | – |
| Vox | 2.1 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | EH Bildu · 32 % | EH Bildu · 31 % |
| 2 | EAJ-PNV · 25 % | EAJ-PNV · 26 % |
| 3 | PSOE · 23 % | PSOE · 24 % |
| 4 | PP · 19 % | PP · 17 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 7,609 (interquartile range 3,106–16,413), 1.87 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PNV | PSOE | 9,322 |
| 2011 | Bildu | PNV | 1,801 |
| 2015 | PNV | Bildu | 5,052 |
| 2016 | PNV | PP | 4,798 |
| 2019A | Bildu | PNV | 9,952 |
| 2019N | Bildu | PNV | 12,667 |
| 2023 | PNV | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,622 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.