5 seats · estimated turnout 69.3 % (2023: 64.8 %)
Huelva
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP33.7 %26.2–41.5
PSOE26.6 %20.0–33.9
Vox21.1 %15.3–27.6
Adelante Andalucía5.9 %2.6–11.4
Por Andalucía4.6 %2.0–9.1
Se Acabó La Fiesta2.2 %0.8–4.8
Podemos2.2 %0.7–4.9
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 1 | 83 | 16 | 2 (2–3) | |||
| PSOE | 27 | 73 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| Vox | 90 | 10 | 1 (1–2) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 73 %; challenger PP (16 %).
Senate
The Senate in Huelva
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.1 26.7–41.9 | 22 | 19 | 58 | 2.3 (1–3) | ||
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 30.5 23.5–38.1 | 4 | 56 | 19 | 21 | 1.6 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 21.3 15.6–27.9 | 93 | 6 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Adelante Andalucía | 6.0 2.7–11.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 3.7 1.1–8.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 2.2 0.7–5.0 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 2.2 0.8–4.9 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 155 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 120 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 218 %
- PP 3 · Vox 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Romero Hernández | PP | 93,630 |
| María Eugenia Limón Bayo | PSOE | 92,269 |
| Juan Manuel González Camacho | PP | 89,953 |
| Amaro Huelva Betanzos | PSOE | 87,611 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 36.4 | 2 | 2 |
| PSOE | 36.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Vox | 14.6 | 1 | 1 |
| Por Andalucía | 10.4 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 61 % | PP · 46 % |
| 2 | PP · 27 % | Vox · 27 % |
| 3 | Vox · 10 % | PSOE · 25 % |
| 4 | Adelante Andalucía · 1 % | Adelante Andalucía · 2 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 11,103 (interquartile range 4,919–20,223), 4.07 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 12,825 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 4,409 |
| 2015 | PP | PSOE | 6,357 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 7,993 |
| 2019A | IU/UP/Sumar | VOX | 239 |
| 2019N | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 123 |
| 2023 | VOX | PP | 4,788 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.