5 seats · estimated turnout 73.7 % (2023: 66.4 %)
Navarra
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP29.2 %19.5–38.8
PSOE23.1 %15.1–31.2
EH Bildu18.8 %8.2–38.4
Vox10.1 %6.2–14.7
Frente Amplio6.5 %2.7–12.8
Podemos3.7 %1.2–8.3
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.6 %0.6–3.8
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 8 | 77 | 14 | 2 (1–3) | |||
| PSOE | 46 | 52 | 2 (1–2) | ||||
| EH Bildu | 12 | 67 | 18 | 3 | 1 (0–3) | ||
| Vox | 78 | 22 | 0 (0–1) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
2.º seat for PSOE: 53 %; challenger Vox (22 %).
Senate
The Senate in Navarra
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 29.6 19.8–39.1 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 39 | 1.9 (0–3) | |
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 28.8 19.6–38.1 | 8 | 42 | 19 | 31 | 1.7 (0–3) | |
| EH Bildu | 19.0 8.3–38.7 | 82 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0.4 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 10.2 6.3–14.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Otros | 7.0 2.4–18.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Podemos | 3.7 1.2–8.4 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.7 0.6–3.8 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 136 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 129 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 217 %
- EH Bildu 3 · PP 14 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Remírez Apesteguía | PSN-PSOE | 93,448 |
| Nuria Medina Santos | PSN-PSOE | 89,107 |
| Antonio Magdaleno Alegria | PSN-PSOE | 83,435 |
| María Mar Caballero Martínez | U.P.N. | 66,132 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE | 27.4 | 2 | 2 |
| EH Bildu | 17.3 | 1 | 1 |
| PP | 16.7 | 1 | 1 |
| UPN | 15.3 | 1 | 1 |
| Frente Amplio | 12.9 | – | – |
| Vox | 5.7 | – | – |
| GBAI | 2.9 | – | – |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSOE · 34 % | PP · 29 % |
| 2 | PP · 28 % | PSOE · 27 % |
| 3 | EH Bildu · 21 % | Vox · 23 % |
| 4 | Vox · 15 % | EH Bildu · 18 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 7,221 (interquartile range 3,052–14,785), 1.96 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE | PP | 17,529 |
| 2011 | Geroa Bai | PP | 183 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | Bildu | 3,780 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PP | 14,193 |
| 2019A | PSOE | Bildu | 341 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 7,672 |
| 2023 | PSOE | IU/UP/Sumar | 1,904 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.