16 seats · estimated turnout 77.2 % (2023: 72.6 %)
Valencia/València
Preliminary forecast updated 20 October 2026, from 50,000 simulations.
Estimated vote
PP33.6 %25.8–42.0
PSOE27.2 %20.1–34.9
Vox22.5 %16.2–29.7
Compromís-Front Valencià11.5 %5.6–20.3
Se Acabó La Fiesta1.9 %0.7–4.2
Dot: mean; bar: 95% of simulations. Share of valid votes.
Seats
| Party | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 95 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 3 | 28 | 49 | 18 | 2 | 6 (4–7) | ||||||||||||
| PSOE | 4 | 38 | 47 | 10 | 5 (3–6) | |||||||||||||
| Vox | 2 | 32 | 54 | 12 | 4 (3–5) | |||||||||||||
| Compromís-Front Valencià | 2 | 43 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 2 (1–3) |
Probability (%) of each seat count. 95%: median and 95% range of simulations.
The closest seat
5.º seat for PSOE: 58 %; challenger Compromís-Front Valencià (56 %).
Senate
The Senate in Valencia/València
29N forecast
4 senators · joint PSOE + Frente Amplio list
| List | % vote | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Mean (95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSOE + Frente Amplio | 37.6 29.5–46.6 | 25 | 19 | 55 | 2.3 (1–3) | ||
| PP | 34.0 26.2–42.4 | 3 | 54 | 19 | 24 | 1.6 (0–3) | |
| Vox | 22.8 16.4–29.9 | 95 | 4 | 0.1 (0–1) | |||
| Otros | 3.7 1.1–8.5 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) | ||||
| Se Acabó La Fiesta | 1.9 0.7–4.2 | >99 | 0.0 (0–0) |
Most likely splits
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · PP 153 %
- PP 3 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 124 %
- PP 2 · PSOE + Frente Amplio 218 %
- PSOE + Frente Amplio 3 · Vox 13 %
% vote: list estimate (mean and 95% interval), share of votes for lists. Columns 0, 1, 2…: probability (%) of each number of senators; Mean (95%): expected senators and 95% range.
Senators elected in 2023
| Senator | Party | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Estela Del Carmen Darocas Marin | PP | 503,009 |
| Juan Antonio Sagredo Marco | PSOE | 496,571 |
| Luis Javier Santamaría Ruiz | PP | 485,817 |
| Cristina Moreno Fernández | PSOE | 482,194 |
2023 result
| Party | % | 2023 seats | With 2026 seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33.6 | 6 | 6 |
| PSOE | 32.1 | 5 | 5 |
| Compromís-Front Valencià | 16.9 | 3 | 3 |
| Vox | 15.2 | 2 | 2 |
The last seat, 2026 forecast
| Holds it | Just short | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | PP · 36 % | PP · 33 % |
| 2 | PSOE · 28 % | PSOE · 30 % |
| 3 | Vox · 24 % | Vox · 24 % |
| 4 | Compromís-Front Valencià · 12 % | Compromís-Front Valencià · 12 % |
Votes the challenger would need: median 18,219 (interquartile range 7,601–35,698), 1.19 % of valid votes. Across the 50,000 forecast simulations.
The last seat, 2008–2023
| Election | Won by | Runner-up | Transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PP | PSOE | 44,925 |
| 2011 | PP | PSOE | 27,395 |
| 2015 | IU/UP/Sumar | Cs | 10,268 |
| 2016 | IU/UP/Sumar | PSOE | 16,473 |
| 2019A | Cs | PSOE | 10,962 |
| 2019N | PP | PSOE | 3,459 |
| 2023 | PP | PSOE | 11,059 |
Votes the runner-up would need to take from the winner to flip the seat.