Asturias: The Seventh Seat Is Up for Grabs Among the PSOE, Vox and the PP, and the Senate Is Nearly a Coin Flip
With seven seats, Asturias elects fewer members of Congress than ten years ago (eight until 2016), and the November 29 forecast leaves just one seat open: the seventh. The conservative People's Party (PP) wins it in 36% of simulations, the Socialists (PSOE) in 33% and Vox in 24%, with a median gap of about 13,200 votes. The central scenario gives the PP three seats, the PSOE three and Vox one. In the Senate, the most likely split is 1-3 in favor of the joint PSOE and Frente Amplio list (44%), followed by 3-1 for the PP (34%).
25 October 2026 · Miguel · Leer en español
Asturias elected eight members of Congress until 2016 and seven since April 2019. In 2023 it split them this way: three for the PP (35.6% of the vote), two for the PSOE (34.3%), one for Vox (12.5%) and one for Sumar (14.8%). The PP won by 1.3 points. This article updates the one we published on October 22 with the forecast of Saturday, October 24, and adds the last seat, turnout, the Senate and the 2024 European election. The analysis of the last seat across all provinces is on the last seat page.
Seven elections, a map that keeps moving
| Election | Seats | Top parties (% of valid votes) | Turnout, residents | Like Spain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | PSOE 46.9%PP 41.6%IU/Podemos/Sumar 7.2% | 73.8% | ✓ | |
| 2011 | PP 35.4%PSOE 29.3%Others 16.8% | 70.3% | ✓ | |
| 2015 | PP 30.1%IU/Podemos/Sumar 29.8%PSOE 23.3% | 71.2% | ✓ | |
| 2016 | PP 35.3%PSOE 24.9%IU/Podemos/Sumar 23.9% | 68.2% | ✓ | |
| Apr. 2019 | PSOE 33.1%PP 17.9%IU/Podemos/Sumar 17.1% | 73.4% | ✓ | |
| Nov. 2019 | PSOE 33.3%PP 23.2%IU/Podemos/Sumar 16.0% | 65.5% | ✓ | |
| 2023 | PP 35.6%PSOE 34.3%IU/Podemos/Sumar 14.8% | 71.1% | ✓ | |
| 2026 forecast | PP 34.0% (25.8–42.8)PSOE 30.0% (21.6–39.2)Vox 19.3% (13.1–26.7)Others 15.0%Blank 1.8% | 72.8% | – |
2026: PP seat no. 1, 100% · PSOE seat no. 1, 100% · PP seat no. 2, 100% · Vox seat no. 1, 100% · PSOE seat no. 2, 99% · PP seat no. 3, 83% · PSOE seat no. 3, 50%; the striped seat is a toss-up.
Few provinces have changed so much. In 2008 the PSOE (46.9%) and the PP (41.6%) took four seats each. In 2011 “others” (16.8%) came in, with Foro Asturias, which won one seat. In 2015 and 2016 the parties to the PSOE’s left together won 29.8% and 23.9% and two seats, and Ciudadanos one. In 2019, with seven seats, the PSOE won with 33.1% and 33.3%, the PP fell to 17.9% and 23.2%, and Vox, with 11.5% and 15.9%, won one seat.
The last seat has changed party four times: PP (2008), PSOE (2011), PP, in coalition with Foro (2015 and 2016), PSOE (April and November 2019) and PP (2023). In 2023 the PP won it by 7,768 votes over the PSOE.
The forecast: the seventh seat, three ways
The model gives the PP 34.1% of the vote (between 25.8% and 42.8% in 95% of simulations), the PSOE 29.3% (21.7–37.6%), Vox 19.1% (13.3–25.8%), Frente Amplio, the successor to Sumar, 7.3% (3.2–13.8%), Podemos, which the model treats as running separately, 4.5% (1.6–9.9%) and SALF 1.7% (0.6–3.7%). The 2026 slate of parties is still an assumption until the proclaimed candidacies on November 3.
In the central split, the PP has three seats in 73.6% of simulations (two in 14.7% and four in 11.6%), the PSOE two in 53% and three in 45%, and Vox one in 60% and two in 39%. Frente Amplio wins no seat in 86% of simulations; it wins one in 14%.
Six of the seven seats are fairly clear: two for the PP (100%), two for the PSOE (99%), one for Vox (100%) and the PP’s third (85%). The seventh is a three-way fight: the PSOE’s third (46%) against Vox’s second (40%). Seen by which party receives the last seat allocated, the PP wins it in 36% of simulations, the PSOE in 33%, Vox in 24% and Frente Amplio in 6%. The median gap between the seat won and its closest rival is about 13,200 votes (5,600 to 26,200 between the first and third quartiles).
Turnout
In 2023, 71.1% of electors resident in Spain voted; including residents abroad (CERA), who vote very little, turnout over the total electoral roll was 62.9%. For November 29 the model expects turnout of 72.8% of residents (between 66.9% and 78.3%). Since 2008, turnout among residents in Asturias has ranged from 65.5% in November 2019 to 73.8% in 2008.
Council by council
Asturias has 78 councils (concejos). In 2008 the PSOE won 62; in 2011 the PP won 48; in 2015 the PP won 41, with 16 for the alternative left; in April 2019 the PSOE won 72; and in 2023 the split was almost even: 40 for the PSOE and 38 for the PP. Between November 2019 and 2023, 30 councils changed winner, and since 2008, 63 of the 78 have done so at least once.
With the October 24 forecast, the municipal estimate makes the PP the favorite in 47 councils (8 solid, 33 leaning and 6 toss-ups) and the PSOE in 31 (3, 18 and 10). Nine would change winner, all from the PSOE to the PP. The largest is Gijón, which the PSOE won in 2023 by four tenths of a point (34.4% to 34.0%) and where the PP is now a leaning favorite (66%); Avilés (59%, a toss-up) would also change, though by a small margin. Oviedo remains the PP’s great stronghold (97%), and the mining valleys the PSOE’s: Mieres (96%), Langreo (94%) and San Martín del Rey Aurelio (99%). Carreño, which stays on the Socialist side, is among the closest (57%).
These figures differ somewhat from October 22’s because the provincial forecast has been updated: then the PP was the favorite in 51 councils and 13 changed winner; with the October 24 forecast it is 47 and 9.
| Municipality | Voters | 2023 | Lead | 2026 favorite | First in | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gijón | 220,525 | PSOE | 0.4 pts | PP | 61% | Leaning |
| Oviedo | 173,514 | PP | 12.2 pts | PP | 95% | Leaning |
| Avilés | 63,026 | PSOE | 2.0 pts | PP | 54% | Toss-up |
| Siero | 43,249 | PP | 2.6 pts | PP | 71% | Leaning |
| Langreo | 32,414 | PSOE | 16.0 pts | PSOE | 93% | Leaning |
| Mieres | 31,567 | PSOE | 17.4 pts | PSOE | 95% | Solid |
| Castrillón | 18,688 | PP | 9.1 pts | PP | 90% | Leaning |
| San Martín del Rey Aurelio | 13,430 | PSOE | 22.9 pts | PSOE | 99% | Solid |
| Corvera de Asturias | 12,985 | PSOE | 12.9 pts | PSOE | 86% | Leaning |
| Villaviciosa | 12,560 | PP | 12.6 pts | PP | 94% | Leaning |
Lead: points over the runner-up in 2023. "First in": share of 4,000 simulations in which the favorite finishes first in the municipality.
These are rough estimates: they start from each municipality’s 2023 vote, shift it to match the provincial forecast and add an error of its own, larger the smaller the council.
The Senate
In the Senate, Asturias elects four senators and each voter can mark up to three names. Under the current assumption of a joint PSOE and Frente Amplio list, the most likely split is one senator for the PP and three for the joint list (44%), followed by the reverse, three for the PP and one for the joint list (34%), and 2-2 (21%). Vox wins a senator in 1.5% of simulations. In the model, the joint list has 35.7% of the Senate vote (27.7–44.5%) and the PP 34.6% (26.3–43.3%): a shift of a few points between them moves a senator. This is an assumption that depends on the final lists.
The 2024 European election: a different contest
In the 2024 European election, a second-order contest with different lists, turnout and reasons for voting, Asturias gave Sumar 5.9% of valid votes (25,386), Podemos 3.8% (16,263) and SALF (Se Acabó La Fiesta) 3.3% (14,027), out of 427,484 valid votes. It is the fifth province in Spain by share of the vote for Sumar and the third for Podemos in that election. That signal does not carry over unchanged to a general election: the model only uses the European election’s territorial profile to spread the national SALF and Podemos vote across provinces, in equal parts with the CIS profile. The November 29 forecast for Podemos in Asturias is 4.5% and for SALF 1.7%.
Who votes in Asturias
Asturias has 1,026,726 residents and one of the oldest populations in Spain: there are 304 people aged 65 and over for every 100 under 15 (171 in Spain), and 28.9% of Asturians are 65 or older (21.2% in Spain). Only 9.5% are under 15.
| Indicator | Asturias | Spain | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population density (people per km²) | 96.8 | 98.6 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591) and census tracts, July 1, 2026 |
| Municipalities | 78 | 8,132 | INE, municipal register via the Household Income Atlas, 2024 |
| Aging index (people 65+ per 100 under 15) | 304 | 171 | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population aged 65 or older | 28.9% | 21.2% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population under 15 | 9.5% | 12.4% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Population with foreign citizenship | 8.2% | 14.9% | INE, Continuous Population Statistics (table 59591), July 1, 2026 |
| Average net income per person | €16,646 | €15,948 | INE, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2024 |
| Average net income per household | €37,097 | €40,605 | INE, Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2024 |
| With a college or vocational degree | 33.2% | 31.9% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Employment rate | 41.6% | 46.8% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Unemployment rate | 17.9% | 17.2% | INE, 2021 Population and Housing Census (via ineAtlas.data), 2021 |
| Employed in industry | 13.8% | 13.6% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
| Employed in services | 77.6% | 75.8% | INE, Labor Force Survey (table 79337), 2026T2 |
The census employment rate (41.6%) is five points below Spain’s (46.8%), with so many retirees, although unemployment is similar (17.9% against 17.2%). Net income per person (€16,646) is above Spain’s (€15,948), but per household it is lower (€37,097 vs. €40,605). 8.2% of residents hold foreign citizenship, almost half the Spanish share (14.9%).
How we calculated it
- History. Official general election results (BOE) from 2008 to 2023, by party family. Council results come from the Interior Ministry’s polling-station data and, adding the overseas vote, match the BOE totals in all seven elections.
- Last seat. New votes the closest rival would have needed to take the seat from the last winner, using each election’s official results.
- Provincial forecast. altnalysis’s forecast of October 24 (50,000 simulations, with polls up to October 16). Figures in parentheses are 95% intervals across simulations. The 2026 slate of parties is an assumption until the proclaimed candidacies.
- Municipal estimate. 4,000 simulations. In each, every council’s 2023 vote is shifted, party by party and on the logistic scale, until the total matches the provincial simulation; a municipal error is then added. Solid: the favorite finishes first in 95% of simulations or more; leaning: between 60% and 95%; toss-up: below 60%.
- Senate. Our own simulation of the lists in each province, assuming a joint PSOE and Frente Amplio list.
- 2024 European election. Interior Ministry polling-station data.
- Sociology. INE: Continuous Population Statistics (July 1, 2026, provisional), Household Income Distribution Atlas, 2021 Census. Municipal boundaries: es-atlas (IGN).
- Code.
articulo_circ.py 33, in the altnalysis repository.